Spannungsprognosen – Quantifizierung und Reduzierung von Ungewissheiten mit geomechanisch-numerischen Untergrundmodellen (SQuaRe)Copyright: © SQuare
Robust predictions of the stress state in the earth's crust are of central importance for the characterization of potential nuclear waste disposal sites. For the assessment of the confidence in geomechanical-numerical models, it is also necessary to specify the uncertainties in the predicted stress magnitudes and orientations. For all components of the stress tensor, ranges of values with the corresponding probabilities must be given. This requires a systematic quantification of the uncertainties of the parameters included in the parameters such as subsurface geometry, material parameters, boundary conditions and the stress data used for calibration. Within the framework of the SQuaRe project, the expertise of the partners from TU Darmstadt, GFZ Potsdam and RWTH Aachen in geomechanical modeling, interpretation of stress indicators and applied statistics is combined. This allows a comprehensive quantitative consideration of the uncertainties of stress predictions, which can be used for site characterization as well as for site comparison. While a generic reference model is used for the development of the working concept and the modeling tools, the proof of general applicability is done in a case study on a real data set from northern Switzerland.
The work at RWTH Aachen aims in particular at the investigation of the influence of geometric parameters and the creation of substitute models using artificial intelligence methods. In addition, all partners work collaboratively on the generic reference model and the case study from northern Switzerland.